UN: global temperatures to stay high despite La Niña

As climate change continues to have a devastating impact across Africa, the United Nations warns that global temperatures will remain above average this year.

Scientists at the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) say this is despite the fact that the cooling La Niña phenomenon may return between September and December.

Conditions oscillate between La Niña and its opposite, El Niño, with neutral conditions in between. The WMO says that that after a brief spell of a weak La Niña, neutral conditions have persisted since March.

“La Niña is the natural cooling of the tropical equatorial ocean as a result it shifts the weather pattern in different places, mainly in the tropics, but not only,” says Wilfran Moufouma Okia,  the WMO’s head of climate prediction.

About 90 per cent of the excess heat from global warming is stored in the ocean, making ocean heat content a critical indicator of climate change.

“For October to December 2025, the probability of La Niña conditions slightly increases to about 60 per cent. There is little chance of El Niño developing during September to December,” the UN agency said in an update.

Moufouma Okia says a strong La Niña can bring big changes in temperatures, wind patterns, and rainfall, but that it is too soon to know what category of La Niña we can expect.

“It's too early to try to give an indication of the strength. Because depending on the strength, every La Niña event has its own consequences,” he says.

However, the WMO says La Niña will not bring down global temperatures which will remain above average for much of the world.

The WMO is keen to stress the impact of La Niña is just one driver of global weather patterns.

It says the phenomenon "should be seen in the broader context of human-induced climate change, which is increasing global temperatures and exacerbating extreme weather."

Moufouma Okia says there will be monthly updates to clarify and give a more accurate picture of what the WMO is expecting. He says Tuesday's earlier alert is necessary to allow countries which may be affected by La Niña to prepare.

The past 10 years make up the hottest individual years ever recorded.