Iran conflict fuels farm crisis as costs soar in South Africa

South African wheat farmers are facing mounting financial pressure as the conflict involving Iran disrupts global fuel and fertilizer markets. With diesel and fertilizer prices surging, producers warn that shrinking profits could push some farms to the brink.

On the wheat fields of the Swartland region near Cape Town, farmers are grappling with a sharp increase in production costs linked to turmoil in the Middle East.

The conflict has disrupted global energy and fertilizer supply chains, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime route that handles around one-fifth of global oil shipments and nearly a third of international fertilizer trade.

As fuel prices climb and fertilizer becomes more expensive, many farmers say their businesses are becoming increasingly difficult to sustain.

“We’ve seen a doubling up in diesel prices. Fertilizer prices have nearly doubled,” said wheat farmer Koos Blanckenberg. “It is impossible to make any money. It’s impossible to have a profit.”

Wheat sector faces mounting pressure

South Africa produces roughly 60 percent of the wheat it consumes and imports the remainder. However, industry groups now expect wheat production to decline by up to six percent this year.

Farmers say the latest cost increases come on top of existing challenges, including cheap wheat imports and years of tight profit margins.

Blanckenberg, who cultivates more than 2,000 hectares of wheat, said many producers had already delayed replacing machinery because of financial pressures. The latest surge in costs, he warned, could make profitability impossible in 2026.

A ‘perfect storm’ for grain producers

Agricultural economist Corne Louw said the sector was already under strain before the Middle East conflict intensified.

Low grain prices and foreign competition had weakened many farming operations, with an increasing number of farms being put up for sale.

“This is actually the perfect storm they are facing now,” Louw said. “And for some of them, it’s basically the last straw.”

According to analysts, rising temperatures, erratic weather patterns and volatile commodity markets are further compounding the difficulties facing grain producers.

Government seeks local solutions

South Africa’s government is exploring ways to reduce dependence on imported agricultural inputs.

Agriculture Minister John Steenhuisen said authorities are looking at public-private partnerships to expand domestic fertilizer production through state-owned company Foskor and private sector partners.

The government is also accelerating the approval of biological alternatives to conventional fertilizers, aiming to create a more resilient agricultural sector less vulnerable to global supply disruptions.

“These are measures that can help shield us in the future,” Steenhuisen said, while acknowledging that they remain medium- to long-term solutions.

Uncertain future for food production

For now, farmers remain focused on getting crops into the ground while navigating rising costs and uncertain markets.

Many fear that without relief, the current crisis could reduce production, threaten farm livelihoods and place additional pressure on food security.

As global tensions continue to ripple through commodity markets, South Africa’s wheat growers are finding themselves on the front line of a conflict unfolding thousands of kilometres away.