Expert says recognition of Palestinian state will not change things in short term

A recent push by Western nations to recognise a Palestinian state is unlikely to change conditions on the ground in the short term, a leading expert said on Thursday.

"Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank will probably not feel the effects of this decision," said Julie Norman, an associate professor of Middle Eastern politics at University College London.

But she said moves by several key countries to recognise its statehood at the United Nations General Assembly in September, could give Palestinians more diplomatic clout in the long-term.

Norman's comments came as Canada became the latest traditionally pro-Israel Western democracy to declare its intention to do so.

She said, however, that this does not mean it will become a full state under the United Nations, where it is currently considered an observer state.

It would need all members of the five-nation Security Council, who each have veto powers, to agree, and the United States has consistently said it will not support the move.

"And it really does highlight how just isolated the US is in that decision in comparison to the rest of the world," she said.

More than 140 countries have already recognised a Palestinian state, including a dozen in Europe.

Norman said, however, that recognition by these Western countries would give Palestinian negotiators a better position in any future talks with Israel.

French President Emmanuel Macron last week said Paris would recognise a Palestinian state, the first Group of Seven country and the largest in Europe to say so.

A day later, Britain said it would recognise Palestine’s statehood if the fighting in Gaza, part of the Palestinian territories occupied by Israel, had not stopped by then.

As with France and the United Kingdom, Canadian recognition would be largely symbolic, but it’s part of a push by countries against Israel and could increase diplomatic pressure for an end to the conflict.

Norman downplayed criticism that recognition of Palestinian statehood was merely symbolic, arguing that aside from economic pressure, diplomatic pressure is the other main lever available to Western nations.

"And just because this won't resolve things immediately doesn't mean they shouldn't use that lever when they think it's the right thing to do," she said.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government rejects a two-state solution on nationalistic and security grounds.

Hamas triggered the war with its attack on southern Israel on 7 October 2023, in which militants killed around 1,200 people and abducted 251 others.

They still hold 50 hostages, including around 20 believed to be alive and in Gaza. Most of the rest of the hostages were released in ceasefires or other deals.

Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed more than 60,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which operates under the Hamas government.

The United Nations and other international organisations see it as the most reliable source of data on casualties.