Nigeria to revise inflation reporting after artificial spike expected in December

Nigeria’s statistics authority says it will revise its inflation reporting methodology after data due next week is expected to show an artificial spike in December inflation, officials and economists said.

The expected jump comes from a technical quirk in how price data are weighted late in the year — a factor that could temporarily push headline inflation to more than double October levels. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) have agreed to adjust how they calculate and present inflation figures to ensure the reported numbers better reflect underlying price trends rather than statistical anomalies.

Economists have warned that without clarification, the December inflation print could alarm markets and policymakers, despite limited real change in consumer prices. Bloomberg reported that the quirk is expected to briefly show headline inflation surging to a rate that significantly overstates price pressures, primarily due to how weights are applied to certain months in the calculation.

To address these concerns, Nigerian authorities say they will publish revised figures and improve transparency around the seasonal adjustment and weighting methods behind inflation data. Observers say the move is aimed at maintaining credibility with investors and policymakers as Africa’s largest economy navigates persistent price pressures and attempts to balance inflation control with growth objectives.

The revision is likely to influence market expectations and policy discourse ahead of the next monetary policy decisions by the Central Bank, which closely watches inflation dynamics in setting interest rates.