Africa’s shifting security map: Ten years on, a continent under strain

Over the past decade, Africa’s security landscape has come under growing strain. Political violence has nearly doubled, driven by civil wars, jihadist attacks, local conflicts, and government crackdowns that have made life more dangerous for millions.

The Ibrahim Index of African Governance shows declining security in many countries, especially Burkina Faso, Mali, Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan, Niger, and Nigeria.

A major shift has been the rise of the Sahel as the new global center of terrorism, with Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger accounting for a large share of terrorism deaths worldwide.

Violence that began with local uprisings in Mali and Boko Haram’s insurgency in Nigeria has spread into a wider belt of jihadist, communal, and criminal activity stretching from the Atlantic to the Red Sea, and moving south toward coastal states like Benin, Togo, and Ivory Coast.

In East Africa, Al-Shabaab remains active in Somalia and continues attacks in Kenya. Eastern DRC and northern Mozambique also remain major crisis zones. Meanwhile, military coups in Mali, Guinea, Sudan, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Gabon have failed to bring the promised security.

Organised crime, including kidnappings, cattle theft, village raids, and piracy, has deepened instability. These conflicts have caused major displacement and suffering, especially in Sudan, Ethiopia, the central Sahel, and eastern DRC.

Still, some countries, including Ghana, Senegal, Botswana, and Mauritius, have remained relatively stable, highlighting the importance of stronger institutions and governance.