Migrant surge along Eastern Route despite risks and mounting deaths

Migrant journeys along the deadly Eastern Route, from the Horn of Africa to the Arabian Peninsula, have surged sharply in 2025, despite rising risks and mounting deaths.

Between January and June, over 238,000 migrants made the perilous trip, a 34% jump from last year. But it comes at a tragic cost at least 348 migrants dead or missing, many lost in Djibouti’s scorching Obock desert, drowned at sea, or caught in violent attacks by smugglers.

Women and girls are increasingly vulnerable with female transit through Djibouti more than doubling.

At the same time, over 55,000 Ethiopians have been forcibly returned from Saudi Arabia, mostly to conflict-hit regions like Amhara, Tigray, and Oromia, where humanitarian needs are already dire.

Aid agencies warn migrants are trapped between danger abroad and despair at home.

Even with a slight dip in movements during Ramadan and enforcement crackdowns, the IOM says if this trend continues, 2025 will surpass last year's migration numbers.