Report: US cuts to foreign aid could cause more than 14 million deaths by 2030

Donald Trump's decision to drastically cut US humanitarian aid is expected to have disastrous consequences, researchers warn.

In a study published by the prestigious scientific journal "The Lancet," they estimate that the collapse of US funding for international aid could lead to more than 14 million additional deaths by 2030.

According to their modeling, the 83% cut in US funding—a figure announced by the government in early 2025—could lead to more than 14 million additional deaths by 2030, including more than 4.5 million children under age 5, or about 700,000 additional child deaths per year.

Examining data from 133 countries, the international team of researchers estimated that USAID-funded programs prevented 91 million deaths in low- and middle-income countries between 2001 and 2021.

USAID-supported programs led to a 15% reduction in overall deaths, with a 32% decline in loss of life among children under 5, researchers found.

The biggest impact was seen in preventable diseases: HIV/AIDS mortality dropped by 74%, malaria by 53%, and neglected tropical diseases by 51% in countries receiving the most aid, compared to those with little or no USAID funding.