New WTO report: high oil, gas prices serious challenge for trade growth

The World Trade Organisation warned Thursday that prolonged high oil and gas prices in 2026 would "shave off" growth from an already grim trade forecast.

Presenting the report in Geneva, the director general of the organization said Thursday that "the report paints a picture of a global economy and a multilateral trading system facing serious challenges."

The World Trade Organisation issued the warning as it published a regular forecast that trade growth in goods — even before the energy market shocks due to the Mideast war — would drop to 1.9% this year, compared to 4.6% in 2025.

If crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices remain elevated throughout 2026, it said Thursday’s economic growth forecast would darken further, slashing another 0.5 percentage points off global trade and as much as 1 percentage point for regions dependent on energy imports.

And that scenario would in turn reduce growth in the volume of goods traded to 1.4%, the Geneva-based trade body said Thursday.

Most shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway for global oil and gas transport that supplies roughly one-fifth of the world’s crude oil, has been halted since early March, after the Iran war started, pushing the price of brent crude over $115 a barrel.