Analyst ponders if Tunisia's president can secure second term in Sunday's election

With his major opponents imprisoned or left off the ballot, Tunisian President Kais Saied faces few obstacles to winning re-election on Sunday, five years after riding anti-establishment backlash to a first term.

The North African country's Oct. 6 presidential election is its third since protests led to the 2011 ouster of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali — the first autocrat toppled in the Arab Spring uprisings that also overthrew leaders in Egypt, Libya and Yemen.

International observers praised the previous two contests as meeting democratic norms. However, a raft of arrests and actions taken by a Saied-appointed election authority have raised doubts about whether this year's race is free and fair. And opposition parties have called for a boycott.

Michael Ayari, Senior Analyst for Algeria & Tunisia at the International Crisis Group, told the Associated Press on Friday that questions loom over Tunisia's future trajectory.

“Will Saied’s rule last forever? That is the question. Is it possible to change the political system in a peaceful way? Or are Tunisians condemned to have a president who will stay in power for 30 years? Who will stay for 20 or 30 years and will put in place his program and the country will become more and more authoritarian?”

But, he added, President Saied does have ardent supporters, who see this election as a “key moment”, an opportunity for Saied to reinforce his “power to carry out his program to liberate the country from a kind of Western domination.”

Tunisia has maintained ties with its traditional Western allies but also forged new partnerships under Saied.

Tunisia and Iran lifted visa requirements and in May announced plans to boost trade ties. It has also accepted millions in loans as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative to build hospitals, stadiums and ports.