Ethiopia backs executive presidency plan, raising fears of power grab

Ethiopia’s national dialogue has endorsed constitutional changes that would merge the roles of prime minister and president into a powerful executive presidency, a move critics warn could allow Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to further consolidate his control after his party’s landslide election victory.

More than 4,000 delegates took part in the weeks-long national dialogue, which ended on August 22 after discussions on Ethiopia’s political tensions, ethnic divisions and persistent armed conflicts.

Delegates overwhelmingly backed a proposal to replace the current system with an executive presidency combining the powers of the prime minister and the largely ceremonial president.

The recommendations could be presented to parliament when it reconvenes in October.

Although Abiy was absent from the dialogue, many observers expect him to be the leading candidate for the new position if the changes are adopted. The president would be chosen by a parliament dominated by members of his ruling party.

Supporters of the proposal argue that the system could create a more unifying national leadership, with the president representing all ethnic groups rather than being elected as a parliamentary representative from Oromia.

Critics warn of concentrated power

Opponents fear the proposed changes could transform the political system to serve one individual.

Political analyst Befekadu Hailu said the reforms could effectively allow Abiy to assume the executive presidency while concentrating power in a single office.

The proposal has drawn comparisons with Turkey, where Recep Tayyip Erdogan moved from prime minister to a newly established executive presidency.

The dialogue also recommended reducing state funding for ethnic-based political parties in favour of parties with a broader national focus.

Opposition and armed groups excluded

The dialogue took place as Ethiopia continues to face serious security challenges, including insurgencies in Oromia and Amhara.

There are also concerns that the conflict in northern Tigray, which raged from 2020 to 2022 and killed an estimated 600,000 people, could erupt again.

Key opposition parties boycotted the dialogue, while armed groups were excluded from the process.

Merera Gudina, chairman of the Caucus of Opposition Parties, said the dialogue could not guarantee the country’s two most pressing needs: lasting peace and democratic governance.

Peace-building expert Naga Tesfaye said the recommendations should be accompanied by negotiations involving the government, armed groups and opposition parties to end ongoing violence.

Contentious issues remain

Some issues triggered heated debate during the meetings, particularly the status of Addis Ababa.

The capital is constitutionally self-governing but is surrounded by Oromia, which has long claimed the city and its surrounding areas.

Several delegates walked out during discussions over the issue, highlighting the depth of Ethiopia’s unresolved regional and ethnic tensions.

Still, some participants praised the dialogue as a rare opportunity for groups with competing visions of the Ethiopian state to engage directly.

Uncertain road ahead

Abiy has governed Ethiopia since 2018 and secured another landslide election victory in June, amid criticism from opponents and international observers over restrictions on political parties and the media.

The proposed constitutional overhaul could now mark one of the most significant changes to Ethiopia’s political system in decades.

Whether it leads to greater national unity or deeper concerns over concentrated power will depend on how parliament handles the recommendations and whether the government can address the conflicts and political divisions that remain unresolved.