U.S.-brokered peace efforts for Sudan encounter new obstacles

U.S.-brokered peace efforts for Sudan have encountered new obstacles after the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) rejected demands to withdraw from cities under their control and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) insisted that any agreement must begin with the RSF's withdrawal.

Mediators are working to revive talks for a proposed 90-day humanitarian truce in Sudan led by U.S. Senior Advisor Massad Boulos, but disagreements between the SAF and the RSF continue to stall progress. The SAF is demanding a full RSF withdrawal, while the RSF says the conditions amount to surrender.

"The military's recent gains in Kordofan have strengthened its position in the negotiations. They could also help civilians return to their homes and improve humanitarian access," said Mohiedeen Mohamed, an analyst.

The SAF had consolidated control of the Export Road linking El Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan State, with Khartoum, despite intensified drone attacks by the RSF, according to military sources.

Mediators hope that a truce will create opportunities for aid deliveries and confidence-building measures. However, ongoing fighting across several fronts complicates the prospects for progress.

"Recent fighting in Kordofan has reshaped the battlefield and prompted both sides to reinforce their positions. That shows neither is ready to make concessions, making a humanitarian truce unlikely to improve conditions on the ground," said Abdolmoniem Abuidrees, another analyst.

Since April 2023, fighting between the SAF and the RSF has killed tens of thousands of people and displaced millions both within Sudan and across its borders. An estimated 33.7 million people will need humanitarian aid this year, according to the UN.