Regional conflicts raise fears of renewed piracy in the Gulf of Aden

Regional conflicts in Yemen, Iran and the wider Middle East are raising concerns that growing instability could fuel a resurgence of piracy along one of the world's most important shipping routes, naval commanders warned.

The Associated Press joined the Spanish frigate Santa Maria on a patrol through the Gulf of Aden, where European Union naval forces are monitoring maritime security threats off the coasts of Yemen, Somaliland and Somalia.

More than 200 sailors, including a special operations team trained to retake vessels seized by pirates, are deployed aboard the frigate as part of the EU's Operation Atalanta anti-piracy mission.

Portuguese Commodore José Rodrigues Pedra, commander of the mission, said piracy incidents had risen in two distinct periods, coinciding with heightened regional tensions.

José Rodrigues Pedra, Commander, EU Naval Force Operation Atalanta : “We saw two main peaks of the incidents. One of them started with the Houthis’ attacks in the Red Sea (in 2023) and the other in the beginning of the war in the Strait of Hormuz. I am not saying that there is a direct link with this crisis. But what I can say is that crisis creates crisis.”

Pedra said more than 70 incidents had been reported since November 2023, with roughly half occurring in 2026, raising concerns about the potential for further disruption to commercial shipping.

Piracy once posed a major threat to vessels transiting the region, prompting international naval deployments and the widespread use of armed security teams aboard merchant ships. Those measures helped bring attacks down, but the latest developments have put maritime security back in the spotlight.

Commanders say pirates could exploit the current instability by targeting commercial vessels moving through the Gulf of Aden or waiting further offshore in the Somali basin.

Commander Fernando María Zumalacarregui Alario, commanding officer of the Santa Maria, said pirates could adopt two different approaches.

Fernando María Zumalacarregui Alario, Commanding Officer, Spanish frigate Santa Maria: “They (pirates) will take two lines of actions. The first one is to come to the Gulf of Aden where the most part of the traffic, merchant traffic, transits from Asia to the West or they can come to what we call the Somali basin and wait for a possible target.”

The stakes extend far beyond the region. Around 12% of global trade, including a quarter of the world's container traffic, passes through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and providing a vital link between Europe and Asia through Egypt's Suez Canal.

Any threat to that route could have consequences for global supply chains, shipping costs and consumers.

“If it is in danger, if it is threatened, you are not going to have what you need,” Zumalacarregui Alario said. “The prices are going to rise, and our life is going to be much worse.”

The renewed concerns over piracy come at a time of heightened maritime tensions, with the Strait of Hormuz closed amid the war in Iran and uncertainty over a possible resumption of fighting between Tehran and Washington.

For European naval forces patrolling the Gulf of Aden, the challenge is to prevent regional instability from creating another major threat to international shipping.