Global shipping faces fragility as trade, political tensions rise - UN

Global shipping, moving over 80 per cent of the world’s merchandise trade, is entering a period of fragile growth, rising costs and mounting uncertainty, according to The Review of Maritime Transport 2025: Staying the course in turbulent waters, released by UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) on 24 September.

After firm growth last year, seaborne trade is expected to stall in 2025, with volumes barely rising (+0.5 per cent). Long-distance rerouting caused by geopolitical tensions kept ships busier last year with a record of nearly 6 per cent growth in ton-miles.

“The transitions ahead – to zero carbon, to digital systems, to new trade routes – must be just transitions,” said UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan. “They must empower, not exclude. They must build resilience, not deepen vulnerability.”

Political tensions, new tariffs, shifting trading patterns and reconfigured shipping lanes are reshaping the geography of maritime trade.

The United States of America and several trading partners have announced policy measures, including new tariffs, port fees and targeted restrictions on port calls in the United States by foreign-built or foreign-operated vessels.

These measures may further affect shipping costs and routes.