Analyst warns Ethiopia fighting could widen into regional conflict

Renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia could spread beyond Tigray and destabilize the wider Horn of Africa, an International Crisis Group analyst warned.

Magnus Taylor, the group’s deputy project director for the Horn of Africa, said the newly announced Alliance for Survival brings together political opposition to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government with what appears to be an opportunistic military alignment.

The coalition includes the Tigray People’s Liberation Front and Amhara Fano forces, which fought on opposing sides during Ethiopia’s 2020-2022 war.

Taylor said their cooperation could pose a serious challenge to federal forces if it develops into coordinated military action.

He warned that any widening conflict could undermine the Pretoria peace agreement that ended the Tigray war and risk drawing in neighboring Eritrea, while instability in Sudan further complicates the regional picture.

Taylor said diplomatic engagement and restraint by all sides remain critical to preventing another devastating conflict.