First results show South Africa's ANC headed to all-time election low with 32%

South Africa's once-dominant African National Congress (ANC) was headed for its worst-ever election performance Friday with about a third of support after 80% of the votes from local government polls had been counted.

Wednesday's municipal elections were dominated by concerns over failing water and power supplies in one of Africa's wealthiest nations which became a democracy in 1994 when the ANC took power.

With final results expected by Sunday, the election authority dashboard showed the ANC was still the largest party with nearly 32% of votes after 80% had been counted.

This was its lowest score yet for the ANC after it secured just over 40% at the 2024 national polls and 46% at the previous municipal elections in 2021.

At the heart of South Africa's anti-apartheid struggle, the party of jailed liberation hero-turned-president Nelson Mandela took nearly 70% of the national vote in 2004.

"This is the most severe result that the ANC would have feared," political analyst Daniel Silke told AFP. "It's the ANC's worst result in history."

"It will undermine its ability to exert authority across South Africa, not just at a local level, but frankly at a national level as well," he told AFP.

"And opposition parties will be smelling blood when it comes to the next election in 2029."

The result of this week's local ballot is seen as an indication of voter sentiment ahead of the 2029 general election, including whether frustrations with local government failures are changing political loyalties.

About 15.9 million of 29.2 million registered voters cast ballots, the electoral commission said. Turnout was an estimated 54.5%, up from 46% in the pandemic-hit 2021 local elections.

Coalition bargaining

The pro-business, centre-right Democratic Alliance (DA) was placing second with just over 24% of votes, according to the 80% count.

This was up from nearly 22% in the 2021 local government election.

The party was set to maintain control of the tourism magnet city of Cape Town and was also leading in the battle for Johannesburg, the country's financial capital where it ran a spirited campaign spearheaded by its former leader Helen Zille.

Former president Jacob Zuma's breakaway opposition uMkhonto weSizwe party (MKP) — contesting local government elections for the first time — was third with just over nine percent.

It was leading in the eastern metropolitan municipality of eThekwini, which includes the port city of Durban, the capital of KwaZulu-Natal province that is Zuma's Zulu homeland.

With outright majorities unlikely to be assured in several major cities, the results will usher in complex coalition negotiations as parties start bargaining to assemble the alliances needed to govern.

"All of the cut and thrust that comes with the election is now over, and it is time now to rise above ... and to put together governments that can actually fix these towns and cities," DA leader Geordin Hill-Lewis told reporters.

"We have already reached out to many parties over the last 24 hours, and will continue to do so today," he said.

While some of the ANC losses are down to disillusionment after years of corruption and mismanagement, chunks of its support base have also been won over by splinter parties like the MKP in the country's increasingly fragmented political landscape.

"Key among the reasons why the ANC is losing votes is because of the emergence of the parties such as the MKP," said university lecturer and analyst Sanet Solomons.

"The smaller parties have been part of coalitions, but those coalitions have in the past been quite unstable and that is not going to improve service delivery," political science professor Amanda Gouws told AFP.