Global travel could hit record levels despite wars and rising fuel costs

Global travel is predicted to hit record levels in 2026 despite war in Iran and Ukraine, higher fuel costs, and an ongoing cost of living crisis.

That is according to the World Travel Market global report which says total visitor spending is expected to rise by 9 per cent to $7.8 trillion.

Sean Morgan, head of research at Oxford Economics who worked on the WTM Global Travel Report said despite increased pressure on household finances, the share allocated to travel has remained stable.

“A lot of this is linked to the experience economy, today's consumers, they're increasingly prioritizing memories over materialistic goods. And that has been a real propeller for the industry," he said.

Morgan added that developing economies are expected to boost the number of people taking trips abroad as their average disposable incomes increase.

"That does mean that globally, there are additional households entering that pool of would be travellers,” he said.

India and China alone combined, are expected to generate another 24 million households over the next six years that will enter that travel market pool.

“They are helping the industry to grow," he said.

It is not just foreign holidays driving the sector. The number of tourists opting to travel within their own region has risen by three per cent this year.

But travel between regions and long-haul travel has dropped by three per cent, amid higher fares and safety concerns, according to the WTM Global Travel Report.

Another key growth trend identified in the report is the rise of the luxury sector and here,  Africa is reporting strong regional growth.

The continent offers diverse once-in-a-lifetime safari experiences in countries like Kenya, or wild gorilla experiences in Uganda.

Taqi Moledina, chair of the African Travel and Tourism Association (ATTA) said the ultra-luxury traveller has been the fastest growing market.

“We're seeing increases of more than 10 or 15 per cent in the traveller numbers, but also in their spend and their desire for it to be a much more experiential, unique based experience," he said.

Unsurprisingly, the one region of the world that experienced a significant downturn in international travel during 2026 was the Middle East.

The war in Iran saw international arrivals to the Middle East fall by 40 per cent, according to data from the report. But analysts predict a strong return in 2027.