Analyst flags uncertainty over South Sudan polls after government dismissal

Uncertainty remains over South Sudan's ability to hold elections in December, after President Salva Kiir dissolved the country's transitional government on Tuesday. 

Political analyst Andrea Mac Mabior said the president's move was in line with the agreed elections timetable. "This is a law", Mabior said. "The Government of South Sudan should be dissolved three months before the election".

The world's youngest nation achieved independence in 2011 but soon after plunged into a five-year civil war and figures among the poorest and most corrupt countries.

All vice-presidents, ministers and local administrators were removed and the national and state assemblies were dissolved in a presidential order aired by the national broadcaster.

According to the decree, the organised forces and judiciary will remain fully operational.

Insecurity and lack of dialogue

Elections have already been postponed twice and the upcoming polls would be the first since the country's independence. But persisting insecurity could remain an obstacle to nationwide polls, said Mabior.

"Some of the areas in South Sudan are not secure, so the government of South Sudan may conduct a partial election", he said.

The analyst also underlined a lack of political dialogue in the country. 

"It would have been better if all opposition groups and the government sat down for a dialogue to address the differences and concerns from different oppositions. That thing did not happen because the peace agreement itself was partially implemented. And that is why opinions are still divided as to whether an election will be held or not", Mabior said. 

The government has failed to implement almost any of the preconditions set out in a 2018 peace agreement, including voter registration, the unification of rival armies and a complete constitution.  

A "decisive step"

The dissolution comes a day after changes to the National Elections Act that allowed Kiir to stay in power while removing all vice-presidents, appointed under the 2018 peace deal, during the election period.

The amendments also allow for the vote to go ahead despite the lack of a constitution or census.

Analysts warned in comments to AFP's Nairobi bureau that the changes offered Kiir unfettered control. "Kiir will be the only person in power, without vice-presidents, without the executive, without the parliament", said Michael Wani, a lawyer and former member of the constitution drafting committee.

Amnesty International said Kiir's move was a "decisive step" for South Sudan towards a "historic election", but urged authorities to "ensure that a conducive environment exists for people to vote and stand in elections".

On Tuesday, South Sudan's National Elections Commission called on politicians and political parties to help ensure a peaceful electoral process.