Tigray violence drives risk of Ethiopia-Eritrea war, analyst says

After almost two weeks of fighting between Ethiopian federal forces and Tigrayan rebels, the risk of the violence expanding beyond Tigray continues to grow. 

Fighting broke out between the rebel Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and federal forces on September 23, sparking fears of a return to the devastating civil war of 2020-2022.

Federal forces have pushed back the rebel offensive and this weekend seized the Tigrayan capital, Mekelle, after TPLF leaders and troops abandoned the city.

"We have been a little surprised that the Tigrayans have not been able to sustain their offensive against the federal government more successfully," said Magnus Taylor, the Deputy Director of the Horn of Africa project at the International Crisis Group.

Taylor said the TPLF's retreat could also mean they plan to "relaunch a different sort of an insurgency rather than an offensive campaign against the federal government."

'Worst case scenario'

The analyst also warned that growing tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea could broaden the conflict beyond Tigray and increase the risk of a wider regional war, which would be "a worst case scenario." 

"The fact that Ethiopia and Eritrea are coming up against each other now suggests the regional picture is looking worse and you could see a kind of more broader escalation that goes beyond Tigray," Taylor said.

Tensions between Addis Ababa and Asmara have been on the rise for months. Eritrea has accused Ethiopia of landlocked Ethiopia of planning to invade and seize access to its coastline.

Meanwhile, in recent days, Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of directly backing the Tigray rebels, with the added support of Sudan and Egypt, which all three countries deny. 

The presidents of Egypt, Somalia, Sudan and Eritrea — all of whom have difficult relations with Ethiopia — met in the Egyptian coastal city of El-Alamein on Sunday.

Egypt and Ethiopia have been locked in a years-long dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which Cairo fears could reduce its share of Nile waters.

Cross-border matters "require cooperation, not competition, and dialogue, not confrontation, including the management and use of natural resources and transboundary rivers in accordance with international law", Egyptian leader Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said ahead of the talks.

The heads of state called for regional disputes to be resolved through "peaceful means", while stressing respect for international law and "non-interference in the internal affairs of states" in the Horn of Africa, according to a statement from the Egyptian presidency.