Guinea-Bissau faces fresh uncertainty after disputed election and coup

Guinea-Bissau has plunged further into political turmoil after a disputed presidential election was swiftly followed by a controversial coup. Opposition leaders question the legitimacy of the takeover, pointing to the actions of ousted President Umaro Sissoco Embaló.

Analysts say the military coup, believed to be orchestrated by high-ranking officials just three days after the elections, marks the fourth in the country since independence from Portugal in 1974.

Attempts to link the coup to foreign actors have been largely dismissed by experts, who cite Guinea-Bissau’s legacy of weak institutions.

Beverly Ochieng, analyst at Control Risks, says: “Opposition and civil society believe this was staged due to Embaló's weakening hold on power. Chief instigators include Dinis N’Tchama, Embaló's close military advisor. The fact that Embaló managed to communicate his ousting to the outside world is telling.”

The whereabouts of Embaló remain unknown. Both he and his main rivals have declared victory, fueling further uncertainty.

Following the coup, the military appointed General Horta Inta-A as junta leader and announced a one-year transition period on state television. The opposition argues that Embaló staged the coup to avoid conceding defeat in a tightly contested race. The Associated Press could not independently verify these allegations.

Ochieng and other analysts downplay external interference, despite some speculation around Russia and France.

"Embaló is known for his ambiguous diplomatic ties, with past leadership roles in the West African bloc ECOWAS," Beverly said.

Guinea-Bissau, among the world’s poorest countries, continues to grapple with repeated coups and instability, reflecting the country’s fragile democratic institutions and the legacy of decades of political unrest.