TPLF loses popular support after fresh fighting in Ethiopia's Tigray

Once Ethiopia's ruling party, the Tigray People's Liberation Front is facing a backlash from former supporters in the northern territory as its latest offensive against federal forces falters.

Tsegay Girmay joined the pro-autonomy party (TPLF) in 2020, outraged at the "atrocities committed" by Eritrean troops and Ethiopian federal forces during their joint efforts to crush it in the bloody Tigray war.

Six years later, the 32-year-old, like several other Tigrayans interviewed by AFP, is pleased that the movement is "on the verge of disappearing".

In late September, the TPLF joined other armed groups in an offensive to "overthrow" Ethiopia's federal leaders but was quickly repelled by pro-government forces using drones.

Forced out of major towns in Tigray, the TPLF has retreated to the region's hills, where it occasionally attacks federal troops.

In October, federal authorities formally took control of Tigray from the rebels, establishing a six-month interim administration and promising to organise elections.

"I don't believe the TPLF has the slightest chance of returning to power. The situation on the ground shows it," said Girmay, a resident of the northern Tigray town of Adigrat.

Eritrea's role

After fighting with Ethiopia against the TPLF during the 2020-2022 war, Eritrea fell out with its neighbour.

In October it deployed thousands of troops in Tigray in support of the party — until Ethiopian federal army drone strikes forced them to retreat.

For many in Tigray, the TPLF's recent alliance with Eritrea raised painful memories of atrocities committed by Asmara's forces in the last war.

Genet Hailu, a resident of the regional capital, Mekelle, said it was a "mistake" for the party to cooperate with Eritrean forces.

"They committed massacres and sexual violence against Tigrayans," she said.

She said the TPLF had lost support both locally and among Tigrayans living abroad.

"The party has distanced itself from the people," she said.

She condemned forced recruitment by the TPLF, documented by media including AFP, and by Human Rights Watch.

"The party committed abuses against the very people who supported it and forced children to join the army," she said.

"As a Tigrayan mother, I cried, beat the ground in anger and cursed the TPLF, praying that it would never come back to power."

The party's vice president, Amanuel Assefa, dismissed the criticism.

"How can one explain that people reproach a party that is sacrificing itself for them?" he said in a response to AFP.

TPLF 'mistakes'

The TPLF was once widely respected in Tigray, having led the rebellion that toppled Ethiopia's military-Marxist Derg regime in 1991.

The party then ruled the country until 2018, although the Tigrayan minority accounts for barely six percent of Ethiopia's population.

It was banned in 2025, several years after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power.

Another former supporter, 35-year-old Natnael Gebregziabher, said he once believed in the TPLF, but now "mistakes by its leaders have put people in serious danger".

"It has become a burden to the people of Tigray," he said.

Others, however, remain supportive of the party despite opposing its alliance with Eritrea.

Gebremichael Abebe, 52, a resident of the Tigray town of Axum, said he feared that "the current federal government wants to destroy us".

"I believe the TPLF will emerge victorious and return to power," he said.

For Kjetil Tronvoll, a Horn of Africa specialist at Oslo New University College, the party's "future depends on several factors, particularly its capacity for self-reflection and how the federal government acts in Tigray".

He judged it was "too early to declare the TPLF dead".