Kenyans brace for El Niño rains as flood survivors fear a repeat of 2024 devastation

Residents of Nairobi's Mathare informal settlement are taking precautions against the threat of heavy El Niño rains, nearly two years after devastating floods swept away homes, destroyed livelihoods and claimed lives.

With Kenya's Meteorological Service warning of potentially intense rainfall between October and December, the government has urged around 1.5 million people living in flood-prone areas to move to higher ground.

Along the Mathare River, residents are clearing rubbish and debris in an effort to reduce the risk of flooding. Many remember the destruction caused by the 2024 rains, when rising waters overwhelmed homes and swept away property.

For Victor Ojoo, a Mathare resident who lost his home and livestock in the previous floods, community-led river clean-ups have become an important part of preparing for another emergency.

"We decided as Mathare residents to start a river clean-up because the 2024 rains really affected us. Before that, we never used to do river clean-ups. We used to just clean drainage systems near shops, roads and fields but nowadays we are mainly focusing on the river because when it rains and the garbage is in the river, the first person to be affected will be a resident."

The clean-up efforts reflect growing concern among residents who remain exposed to flooding because of the settlement's proximity to the river and the difficulty of relocating to safer areas.

The government says it is strengthening emergency response measures based on lessons learned from previous floods, including improving access to affected communities and ensuring that rescue teams and essential supplies are available ahead of the rains.

Nairobi County has identified potential evacuation centres and plans to position rescue personnel, food and other emergency supplies in vulnerable areas before flooding occurs.

"Based on the learnings we had last time where accessibility to some of those that were affected was a big challenge, and you know rescue is a matter of life and death, and it's a matter of time. So this time we are going to pre-position them. We'll also pre-position the stockpiles in terms of food and non-food in those holding centres, in the event that people have to be evacuated, then the food is available."

However, human rights organisations say emergency preparations must go beyond evacuation orders and involve the communities most at risk.

The Kenya Human Rights Commission warns that residents of informal settlements should not be displaced without adequate consultation or alternative accommodation.

It is also calling for equal treatment, arguing that vulnerable communities should receive the same level of protection and emergency assistance as residents of wealthier neighbourhoods.

"Communities must be involved so that they are not just subjects, but they are part and parcel of preparations for El Niño when it eventually happens. And we also want equal treatment so that we don't have a situation whereby communities living in the rich neighbourhoods are treated differently, where they are given more considerable responses, and those ones in the informal areas like the Mathare areas are chased without looking at where they are going."

The warning comes as Nairobi continues to grapple with urban planning challenges, encroachment on wetlands and construction in flood-prone areas, factors that increase the city's vulnerability to flooding.

For residents who lost homes, belongings and sources of income in 2024, the prospect of another season of heavy rainfall brings renewed uncertainty.

As communities prepare along the Mathare River, the challenge for authorities is not only to respond quickly when floods strike, but also to ensure that those most vulnerable are protected, consulted and given viable options to rebuild their lives.