This is the first time the ICC has filled charges against a sitting head of state. The chief prosecutor, Luis Moreno-Ocampo, believes he can prove that al-Bashir and his government are criminally responsible for "intentionally directing attacks against an important part of the civilian population of Darfur, murdering, exterminating, raping, torturing and forcibly transferring large numbers of civilians and pillaging their property."

As Nick Grono from the International Crisis Group writes, the arrest warrant is one thing, but "getting al-Bashir before the court will be an entirely different challenge." There are a few possible scenarios. Bashir can surrender himself to the court, something that no one believes will happen.

He can be arrested when he travels abroad. This will probably not happen, as he is very likely to travel only to friendly countries that guarantee his safety.

Another scenario sees the members of al-Bashir's party and government ousting him from power and sending him to The Hague. Not many people expect this to happen, but given a long history of political and military coups in Sudan this shouldn't come as a surprise.

Al-Bashir will remain

The most likely scenario is that al-Bashir will remain in power in Sudan and continue business as usual. In this case, the conflict in Darfur would continue and even escalate further, while the Sudanese opposition and freedom of speech and expression would be violently suppressed.

The arrest warrant for al-Bashir is very likely to disrupt the current efforts to organize new talks to end the six-year-long Darfur conflict which are planned to take place in Qatar in the coming months.

Seen as war criminals around the world, al-Bashir and his government have little or no reason to negotiate peace. This could backlash in Darfur and continue suffering of millions.

Also, al-Bashir's indictment is very likely to disrupt the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) signed in 2005 which ended the two-decades-long war between Sudan and southern Sudan.

Under the CPA, national elections are to take place in Sudan no later than July 2009. The indictment of al-Bashir by the International Criminal Court could end all hopes of holding free elections in the country. Furthermore, the southerners fear that a referendum on self-determination for the south, scheduled for 2011 under the CPA, could be in danger now that the ICC judges have decided to proceed with their case against president Omar al-Bashir.

The United Nations Security Council has an option of invoking Article 16 of the ICC Statute which allows the Council to suspend the ICC prosecutions in any case for a period of 12 months that can be renewed indefinitely. While China and Russia have stated they would support the delay of the case against al-Bashir, the United States, Britain, and France want to see him prosecuted.

Justice is very important for the victims, post-conflict reconciliation, and the future of Darfur and Sudan. However, the aim of the international community should be to first bring peace to Darfur and then punish the perpetrators of war crimes and crimes against humanity.