A power sharing deal agreed upon by major political parties on Thursday is a “very fragile” arrangement that required the major proponents of the deal to be careful, political analysts said Friday.
Zimbabweans received the news of the power sharing deal with skeptism saying doubts remained on the success of the deal.
The three leaders of the political parties Robert Mugabe, Morgan Tsvangirai and Aurthur Mtambara consented to deal that creates the office of prime minister, two deputy prime minister and establishes a council of ministers which would be chaired by Tsvangirai.
The power-sharing deal was reached under the mediation of South African President Thabo Mbeki, who said details of the deal and the structure of government would not be announced until a ceremony, to be attended by regional and continental leaders, on Monday.
Mbeki said the leaders would spend the weekend constituting the government.
Political analyst John Makumbe said at the moment there was just a deal on the table which meant to be signed on Monday if none of the parties decided to renegade a few days before signing.
“This is a very fragile arrangement and no-one should put his foot wrong in the next few days as it might jeopardize the effective formalization of the deal,” said Makumbe.
He said it difficult for general people to analyze the deal as it had not been made public but he noted “meaningful” concessions from Robert Mugabe and ZANU PF.
There seems to have been some meaningful concessions from Mugabe and ZANU PF that has made the deal possible. The MDC has also shown maturity by insisting on meaningful change in the negotiation process,” he said.
He however added that the success of the power sharing government was premised on which portfolios each party would be in charge of.
“The nature of the nation is so bad that whatever is possible must be done to ensure its success. There has been too much pain and suffering and people want a better life,” said Makumbe.
Tsvangirai's party would have 13 cabinet seats, ZANU-PF 15 and his group three seats. The three parties would each appoint one non-constituency member of parliament, while Tsvangirai will appoint 4 non-constituency senators and Mtambara 2.
A pharmacist predicted that Mugabe would continue with his old ways of unilaterally running government and continue to deride the other partners in the deal.
“I foresee Mugabe continuing to do the usual as he has not lost that much power in this agreement,” he said.
The parties agreed that Mugabe would chair cabinet while Tsvangirai would chair a newly created Council of Ministers which would help in the monitoring and supervision of ministries. The cabinet is expected to have 35 members including Mugabe and his two deputies while the Council of Ministers would have 32 including Tsvangirai.
A prominent banker expressed doubts on the success of the deal saying that Mugabe continued to wield so much power despite the creation of the prime minister’s office.
“They would have shared power if the Council of ministers had the power to supervise cabinet which Mugabe chairs, without that Mugabe and his cabinet would continue to force policies which hurt the political environment and the economy,” he said.
“The problem is that we are analyzing a deal that we are yet to read,” he added.
The parties also agreed that there will be no by-elections for a year. If any party loses an MP it will automatically fill in the vacancy without an election, Constitutional Amendment No 19 to be made to facilitate implementation of the agreement and that a new democratic constitution should be in place within 18 months