Preliminary estimates of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) obtained from Central Statistical Office (CSO) have attributed the upward swing to expected strong growth in the agriculture, forestry and fishing, mining and quarrying and construction industries.

In value terms, real GDP is expected to be K4,003.0 billion (US$ 860,677) in 2009 compared to K3,765.4 billion (US$ 810,112) in 2008. In nominal terms, the GDP is expected to increase to K64,326.1 billion (US$ 13,840,989) in 2009, from K55,078.8 billion (US$ 11,851,102) in 2008.

Spurred by increased production of crops in the 2008/2009 agricultural season, the agriculture, forestry and fishing industry is expected to grow by 7.1% in 2009, from 2.6% in 2008.

The output of maize, the country’s main staple crop, is expected to reach 1.9 million metric tonnes produced in the 2007/2008 agricultural season.

The mining and quarrying industry, which grew by 2.4% in 2008, is expected to post a growth of 15.8% in 2009. This is largely due to the increase in copper output. The production of copper is expected to reach 666,000 metric tonnes in 2009 compared to the 575,000 metric tonnes recorded in 2008.

Coal

Coal production, which had ceased in the previous years, resumed in 2009 and is expected to contribute to the growth in the industry. Stone quarrying output is also expected to increase.

The construction industry is expected to rebound to double digit growth in 2009, growing by 15.5% compared to 8.7% recorded in 2008.

The commissioning of a second cement plant by one of the main cement producers in the country has led to increased production and equally higher sales of the commodity. Cement is one of the main inputs in housing and commercial construction.

However, some of the industries in the services sector are expected to post declines and slower growths compared to last year. The hotels, bars and restaurants industry, which is largely driven by inbound tourism, is expected to decline by 14.5% in 2009 compared to the 5% growth realized in 2008.

Though the transport and communications industry is expected to post a marginal growth of 3.1% compared to the 15.8% growth in 2008, the air transport is expected to decline by 29.0%. However, the communications is expected to grow by 12.0% in 2009 compared to a growth of 21.1% in 2008.

The financial institutions and insurance industry is expected to grow by 5.0% in 2009 compared to 8.7% in 2008. The community, social and personal services industry is also expected to post a growth of 6.8% in 2009 which is lower than the 11.7% recorded in 2008.