Zimbabwe is not likely to be suspended from the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme which prohibits the sale of "blood diamonds" despite the heated debate that has been going on for almost a year. But this will not be because of President Robert Mugabe's obstinacy. More powerful forces are simply at play.

Calls for the suspension were first made by human rights organisations last year
after the government deployed soldiers to the Chiadzwa area in Marange,
near the eastern border town of Mutare, to drive out nearly 40 000 diggers
of alluvial diamonds.

The soldiers are reported to have killed between 80 and 200 diggers during
the operation dubbed “Operation Hakudzokwi” - Shona for “Operation No Return".

A review team sent by the Kimberley Process in June also recommended that
Zimbabwe be suspended from the KP for six months.

Nothing has happened since. Soldiers are still at Chiadzwa. And reports
say they are still killing illegal diggers.

Ian Smillie, one of the founding members of the KPCS, told an
international diamond conference in New York on September 10 that
Australian diplomats had paid “quiet visits” to governments of members of
the KP team that recommended the suspension of Zimbabwe to persuade them
not to take any action.

Five countries were represented on the team: South Africa, Namibia,
Liberia, the United States and Canada.

“Australian diplomats paid quiet visits to the governments of team members
recommending against any action that might damage the interests of a
diamond mining company with Australian connections in Zimbabwe,” Smillie
told the conference.

“For these governments and the others that are currently active behind the
scenes, business and politics trump human rights and the very purpose of
the Kimberley Process. They trump good management; they trump common sense
and decency; and they trump the long-term interest of the entire diamond
industry,” he said.

Smillie worked for Partnership Africa Canada, a non-governmental organisation that was lobbying for Zimbabwe to be suspended from the KPCS but resigned in May because of the ineffectiveness of the Kimberley Process.

Zimbabwe has three major diamond operations: Chiadzwa, Murowa in
Zvishavane and River Ranch in Beitbridge.

Murowa and River Ranch are KP certified. Murowa is owned by the Rio Tinto
group which controls 78 percent while River Ranch is owned by a Saudi
Arabian businessman, Adel Aujan.

Smillie was therefore only referring to Rio Tinto, the fourth largest mining
group in the world. Rio Tinto has head offices in London, England and in
Melbourne, Australia. It is listed on both the London and Australian
bourses and is the world’s third largest producer of diamonds. It has
diamond mines in Australia, Canada and Zimbabwe.

The Fortune Global 500 company does not have to do any lobbying. It is a
member of the World Diamond Council which has called for the suspension of
Zimbabwe. Others can do it for the company.

The Australian government, which has taken a hard line on the
Zimbabwean government and imposed sanctions on President Robert Mugabe and
his lieutenants, announced on September 15 that it might ease the
ban on ministerial contact with Zimbabwe which has been in force since
2002. It will also provide US$8 million in humanitarian assistance, the
bulk of which will go to food aid.

Australian Foreign Minister Stephen Smith said the engagement would be on
a selective-case-by-case basis with ministers judged to be making a "real
and genuine contribution to Zimbabwe's social and economic recovery”.

Though he said Australia would not lift sanctions on Mugabe and his
lieutenants, Smith said his country strongly believed that the international
community should take "a flexible, pragmatic and active approach” towards
Zimbabwe.

Diamond expert Chaim Even-Zohar has written a comprehensive report in the
Diamond Intelligence Briefs on why Zimbabwe should not be suspended from
the KP arguing that this would exacerbate human suffering.

He specifically says Rio Tinto should not be punished because the
suspension of Zimbabwe from the KP “will only widen the suffering of the
Zimbabwean people, while benefiting no one”.

“Not a single government crony, military official, corrupt miner, or other
killer of innocent diggers is using the Kimberley Process in Harare. All
these goods are smuggled out— no exceptions,” Even-Zohar argues.

He says some 1 500 people are employed by Murowa. Rio Tinto has assisted
local people to set up their own businesses like the Murowa Construction
Company and Murowa Manufacturing Sewing Group which will survive long
after the mine has closed down.

“If a player like Rio Tinto is ‘forced out’ because of some ill-advised
removal of Zimbabwe from the Kimberley Process, the NGOs will spend years
trying to collect money to initiate just the kind of activities developed
by Rio Tinto. KP suspension will only add to the suffering. Moreover,
there are precedents how to deal with such situations without suspension,”
he argues.

With friends like this, Mugabe does not need to take any action.