For many observers and western media, the election of the ANC chairman appeared like a presidential election, simply because the winner stands the greatest chance to win the 2009 presidential poll. Thus, the stakes were really high, but the question is to know why Mbeki is willing to lead the party after 10 years on power.

Like many analysts, I am of those who think that he should retire and let somebody else take over, just like Mandela. He spent 4 years as Mandela’s vice president, which means he was actually the one in charge as Mandela was too old for everyday presidential tasks. On top of that, we should add 10 years as president, which makes a total of 14 years. That is more that enough in a democratic country like South Africa. Mbeki should rather prepare the end of his long political career and leave the political forefront, which he has dominated for almost two decades.

I was reassured when I Mbeki live on CNN congratulating Zuma. No animosity could be read on their faces. I hope this attitude, which honours the whole South African nation will prevail until the next election. Otherwise, if Mbeki do like other Africa leaders who do all to block the way to their rivals, by for instance evoking corruption allegations against Zuma, then the worse is to be feared.

The first consequence of such an attitude would be the split of the ANC into ANC-Zuma and ANC Mbeki. I think none of the two leaders wishes to see this happen. The other possible consequence would be that Zuma would be prosecuted, arrested and put in a position that would prevent him for running for presidency. Such eventuality would prompt thousands of his supported in the streets, with all the violence we can imagine.

The only wisest attitude on the part of Mbeki and his supporters, is to let Zuma make his way to the presidential palace and even to support him. Any way, he is the ‘natural’ successor of Mbeki who appointed him as vice-president. Now that he has proved to be more popular than Mbeki himself, he should draw all the conclusions that impose themselves.

In the meantime, I wonder how South Africa will be governed until the 2009 elections. The president has lost his party’s confidence, and his political foe has become the ‘man of the people’, which means that even the parliament could block some of Mbeki’s policies. For these reasons, Mbeki’s government is entering a sort of transition, during which no major or politically sensitive decision can be made, without making sure that Zuma approves of it. That is the only way to avoid humiliation.

My hope is that South Africa will keep its head out of water and will set an example to the rest of Africa, especially to Kenya. This country is to elect its president in late December, by its political landscape shows divided political parties, even within the until-recently-ruling coalition.