For the last couple of days, economic conditions witnessed clear deterioration as necessary goods became scarce; and food items prices rose sharply. The main market in Abyei has undergone clear changes as north Sudanese traders began to flock northward due to fears of violence break out. Yet, no one knows what the future may bear, although the general outlook tells that the situation may worsen if it is not well handled.

The nomadic Arab Messeriya tribes, who spend more than six months in the south looking for water sources and pasture for their cattle, have began to pressure authorities in the area to allow them to move southward. Last week, the northern part of Abyei witnessed fierce clashes between Messeriya militias allegedly said to be backed by Khartoum and local police units deployed to the area. Thirty three people at least were reportedly killed in these clashes and more people injured.

Two months ago, Ngok Dinka civil society organizations convened in Juba and vowed not to allow Messeriya cattle enter the area if Khartoum insists to delay their referendum. Relevant incidents occurred in the area when similar militias attacked a convoy of vehicles transporting IDPs back to neighbouring Northern Bahr Elgazal state. More than ten people were reportedly slain and their properties looted.

Two days ago, top SPLM officials arrived in Abyei and met with local authorities to discuss issues pertaining to security conditions in the area. Pagan Amum, the Secretary-General of the SPLM and the south Sudanese minister of Peace and CPA Implementation, called on Abyei people to maintain composure and self-control, viewing the last attacks on Abyei as an attempt to derail the ongoing referendum in the South.

Analysts fear that current escalations may trigger another war between the south and north. Abyei is a particularly volatile area that may even threaten the whole peace process in the region. Current reports say if violence breaks out again in the territory, it will badly impact the whole security process in the region.

The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) signed at Naivasha, Kenya in 2005 stipulates that residents of Abyei, by the end of the six-year interim period, shall cast a separate ballot simultaneously with that of the south to determine whether they want to maintain their special administrative status in the north or rejoin the south. Disagreement over voter eligibility led to total postponement of the whole process.

The National Congress Party (NCP) insists that Arab Messeriya tribe should take part in the area's referendum, while the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) sees that the Messeriya are nomadic tribes who roam the area looking for water and pasture and thus should not be allowed to vote in the referendum that should only be exclusive to the nine Ngok Dinka chiefdom transfer from Bahr Elgazal to Kordofan in 1905.