The leader of the Kenya African National Union(KANU)  and Deputy Prime Minister, Uhuru Kenyatta stepped aside from his role as Finance Minister, while Francis Mathaura stepped aside from his role as the Head of Public Service and Secretary to the Cabinet. 

However Mr. Kenyatta still retains his role as Deputy Prime Minister and may be vying for Presidency under Party of National Unity (PNU) Alliance. There has been intense public pressure on both leaders to step aside since the charges against them were confirmed.

It is not clear at the moment the sort of repercussions the on-going trial may have on Mr. Uhuru’s political ambition and that of the former Education Minister, Mr William Ruto, who is also among those charged. In the last few days there have been a lot of political permutations and engineering, whose result remain unpredictable.  Pundits have continuously cautioned both politicians and citizens to do everything not to allow the situation from derailing to conflict.

Some observers believe that the fact that charges have been confirmed against the Uhuru and Ruto may make them ineligible for the elections especially with reference to the limits set by Chapter six of the new constitution of the Republic, on Leadership and Integrity. 

The Minister for Justice and Constitutional Affairs, Mr. Mutula Kilonzo made reference to this, in a recent statement credited to him. However both Mr. Uhuru and Ruto have appealed the confirmation as they continued to maintain their innocence. They have even vowed to go ahead with their campaigns.

Kenya’s Attorney General Prof. Githu Muigai argued that nothing can be done to them until the pending appeal is determined. This view is also held by the Constitution Implementation Commission whose Chairperson recently stated that  Article 99 of the Constitution which sets out conditions under which a candidate can be disqualified does not bar Uhuru and Ruto from seeking Kenya’s highest political office.

Divisive politics have been a reoccurring decimal of Kenyan politics. The Kikuyus and the Kalenjins, for instance, have a long history of intertribal antagonism.  They were also the two main tribes that were involved in the post-election violence in 2007 especially within the Rift Valley Province.

However, political expediency at this time may force them to quickly consider forgiving each other and realign towards a common goal. Mr. Uhuru Kenyatta is the leader of the Kikuyus and Mr Ruto is also seen as the de-facto leader of the Kalenjins.

As it stands now  in their current travails, both men may be decide to forget their past and team up against Prime Minster Raila Odinga, who is seen by many as a possible beneficiary of the on-going situation. Another relevant factor is Mr. Mathaura who just stepped aside as Cabinet Secretary and Head of the Public Service and who is a Meru born top bureaucrat. His ethnic group is considered as an ancestral cousin of the Kikuyus. Going by that relationship, they could be seen as possible allies during the next political season.

One other interesting scenario is the possible emergence of a dark horse in the name of Stephen Kalonzo the current Vice President. Though he is free of any political baggage in theory, many Kenyans see him as a political opportunist having been referred by his opponents as water melon during the campaigns for the constitution.

Mr. Kalonzo, who is from Kamba tribe (which constitutes about 11. 42 percent of the population), ran for Presidency in 2007 against Raila Odinga and Mwai Kibaki.   It is believed that his insistence in participating in the elections and the 879,899 votes he scored, contributed greatly in denying both front runners an outright win.

Supporters of PM Raila Odinga from the Luo ethnic group consider him a political traitor – a perception shared by many Kenyans and which may become the biggest impediment to his possible emergence as President.  Despite all these, it will be politically perilous to dismiss a man of his statue and political experience.

A conservative segment within the Kenyan political elite, are sceptical about the ICC and perceive it as a tool that Western powers want to use to pave way for their preferred candidate. Some of them consider PM Raila Odinga the ‘puppet of the West’ and even point to the fact that US President Barack Obama’s ancestral origin is traceable to the Luo ethnic group and that may be a reason for the implicit support of Obama Presidency  to Raila Odinga’s candidature.

They believe that the four Kenyan suspects could have gotten a fairer trial back home where recent reforms seem to have produced an improved and seemingly impartial judiciary.

The biggest challenge before all the contenders is to eschew divisive politics laced with hateful utterances which can escalate the fragile peace in the country.  Prime Minister Raila Odinga should take the lead through campaigns of forgiveness, reconciliation, inter –ethnic harmony, unity and amity. Mr. Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto must learn to exercise verbal restraints during their defence in The Hague and back home. There is a need to watch out for early warning signals either among the dominant Luo communities in the Kibera slum or among the mesh of Kalenjin, Maasai and Kikuyu communities in the Rift Valley Province. A time has come for a forward looking politics of accountability and inclusion. 

One that is less abrasive and shuns judgemental ethnicity and impunity. The emergence of such a political class in Kenya will galvanise the confidence of ordinary Kenyans in their political leadership, rekindle patriotism and accelerate the country towards genuine healing that will lead to a departure from the dysfunctional politics of the past. The world is watching.

Uche Igwe is a governance expert. He wrote in via ucheigwe@gmail.com