But the inquiry cautions that main opposition party Malawi Congress is a threat as it can stretch its opportunities to snatch the victory.

The analysis said any change in the behaviour of electorates from now to the voting day would favour MCP and not any other party.

Two years ago in 2006 during by-election in six constituencies scattered across the country, the DPP scooped all the seats, in just 10 months after its formation in 2005.
The party was formed by people fired from other main parties.

The opinion was analysed by University statisticians pleading to have their names concealed.

Malawi laws allow a party with a narrow margin to become a ruling party under First- Past-The-Post, the winner takes all, system which has, half the time, fallen prey of political critics.

But independent Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) which has recently been conducting registration of voters, warned against ad hoc opinion polls, saying it is recipe to violence in cases where results come out different.

MEC Chairman, Justice Anastasia Msosa, who oversaw the first and most independent democratic elections in 1994 where founding President Hastings Kamuzu Banda got ousted from power, warned the media when she said: “Opinion polls are not disallowed but care must be exercised as a pre-condition for fair media conduct in the run up to the polls.”

The opinion poll was analysed together with public inquiries on freedoms, conducted as part of commemorating Human Rights day.

Census

In June this year Malawi had a Population and Housing Census conducted by government arm National Statistical Office (NSO) based in the former capital city Zomba where it was revealed that, the percentage distribution across the country’s geographical regions is 13 percent for North, 42 percent Central and 45 for the South.

Apparently the geographical percentages have in the past influenced political index. And it is interpreted that such is why since democratic dispensation the country’s leadership has dominantly been a decision of the people resident in the Southern region owing to their numbers.

“Our inquiries show that there will be little change in the behaviours of voters and this seems to be working towards the ruling party DPP which is being interpreted as much modified version of MCP, UDF (former ruling parties) and AFORD,” he said.

The ruling DPP was made by people fired from MCP, UDF and the northern based AFORD. “Our analysis shows that the DPP can go beyond 67 percent, the least it can get is not less than 49 percent.

“And even at the minimum 49, the inquiries show that the party can still be the winner because the other parties can only go up to 27 percent each given any type of formation they may take,” he said.

Analysis

On the ground, the analysis shows that the ruling party will enrich its chances by scooping five districts formerly won by the defunct New Republican Party of Gwanda Chakuamba who has since taken a slow gear in politics. The five are Neno, Mwanza, Blantyre, Nsanje and Chikwawa. Apparently in these districts the party already has MP’s.

The party is also likely to scoop areas believed to be its presidential candidate Bingu Mutharika’s political bedroom of Thyolo (his home), Mulanje, Phalombe, Zomba and Chiradzulu. This they say it translates to 9 districts of the total 13 in Southern Region.
They also say the DPP can scoop the whole 13 percent northern region, an area widely seen to be its largest strong hold with majority of its cabinet ministers and MP’s.

In Central region, the analysis shows that the DPP only needs quarter of the total percentage to sail through. But evidence show, it can accumulate up to half the voters.

It says the DPP is going to get 85 percent of seats being held by independents.

The undecided districts of Balaka, Ntcheu, lakeshore Salima, Nkhotakota, capital city Lilongwe, Kasungu and Mchinji are also easy prey for the ruling party because people in these areas, will go for a higher offer and the DPP seems well positioned to win their support.

In the previous elections held in 2004 the disbanded Republican Party of Gwanda Chakuamba won 27 MP’s, AFORD of the Late Chakufwa Chihana 6, MCP got 59, UDF of former President Bakili Muluzi 49 and 46 others were independents. The prediction thinks 90 percent of Chakwamba’s seats will go to DPP.

Asked on what the inquiries show in cases of Coalitions, experts say, there will be little drift in the voting pattern because people seem to have lost confidence in partnerships formed solely for elections, as fears are that they normally break down.