Using data drawn from a four-day mission to Liberia border areas earlier this month, the WFP's study on the Ivoirian refugee influx and food security notes that "refugee consumption is inadequate" and highlights the need for refugees to receive either full food rations or partial rations complemented by supplementary feeding.

WFP also proposes food-for-work schemes for 20 percent of the host community "most exposed to the negative consequences of the refugee influx" and an extension of supplementary feeding activities in the host area.

Most of the refugee population has been concentrated in Liberia's northeastern Nimba County, with a tiny percentage farther south in Grand Geddeh county. Current estimates put the official refugee population at around 25,000, while the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) and partner agencies have made contingency plans for 50,000.

The WFP report notes that ordinary households are often hosting between three and five refugees. In some areas, the refugees outnumber the host population; it cites the example of the border village of Loguato, where 5,307 refugees are living with just 1,743 locals.

Among the NGOs most active in dealing with the influx has been Equip Liberia, based in Monrovia, but with a longstanding presence in Nimba. The head of Equip Liberia, David Waines, said emergency funding from USAID had enabled it to recruit new staff and rapidly expand its allocation of medicines and general healthcare provided through health clinics in the 23 areas where refugees were entering.

Improved living conditions

Waines noted that living conditions for refugees appeared to be improving, with cases of 20 or more people sharing one room becoming rarer and better arrangements being made for safe sleeping quarters for women and children. He praised the Liberian authorities for their "helpful and proactive stance" on dealing with the arrival of the refugees.

He stressed that the demographic make-up of the refugees had been shifting, with many more men and adolescent boys now crossing over.

However, males were still being recruited as mercenaries: "Every day I hear another story about somebody who personally knows a family member or friend who is on their way, who has been recruited by the Gbagbo side, or been recruited by the Ouattara side.

"There are a lot of Liberian ex-fighters who are not engaged at the moment for whom it's an interesting prospect. Everyone is expecting a big blow-up," Waines told IRIN.

Refugee planning

He confirmed that about 500 people were still crossing the border every day, but numbers could well rise dramatically once food distribution began in earnest. He said initial food provision had been on a pilot basis, targeting just 8 percent of the refugee population, although 50 percent had received non-food items.

WFP has stressed the need to monitor changes in the situation, pointing out that the operational context could change as a refugee camp comes into operation and the rainy season sets in (from May).

Humanitarian agencies in Abidjan and Dakar have identified tackling the refugee problem as one of the main components in their planning for Côte d'Ivoire and neighbouring states while also strongly focused on displacement in the west of Côte d'Ivoire.

In a statement issued from New York on 13 January, Baroness Valerie Amos, UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, said humanitarian organizations were doing their utmost to ensure that aid reached the needy, especially women, children and the elderly, as quickly as possible, while contingency plans had been extensively revised to ensure the UN and its partners were ready to respond in case a major humanitarian crisis unfolds.

"A peaceful and rapid solution to the crisis is critical for the people of Côte d'Ivoire and for the region as a whole. It is important that all parties refrain from inflammatory rhetoric, hate speech and incitement to violence to ensure that the situation does not escalate any further."

NGOs at work

NGOs working in north-eastern Liberia say many of the 30,000 refugees arriving from neighbouring Côte d’Ivoire are reporting widespread violence and intimidation from both Ivoirian government troops and soldiers from the former rebel Forces Nouvelles operating in the West.

The head of the Liberia-based NGO, Equip Liberia, David Waines, said the initial refugee flow had been quite small, with 70-100 Ivoirians a day crossing over in the immediate aftermath of the 28 November presidential run-off election.

Waines said refugee numbers went up dramatically as the Ivoirian political crisis worsened, with Laurent Gbagbo and Alassane Ouattara both laying claim to the presidency and Gbagbo refusing to yield to international pressure to step down. According to Waines, the exodus began in earnest on 17 December, the day after the abortive march by Ouattara supporters on the state TV centre Radiodiffusion Télévision Ivoirienne (RTI) and the most serious episodes of violence in Abidjan, and that at least 1,000 Ivoirians a day had been coming into Liberia since.

“We have about 17,000 refugees registered and probably a total of about 30,000.” Waines told IRIN. He pointed out that formal registration was a long process and many of the new arrivals had not yet been fully documented. The Liberian government anticipates at least 100,000 refugees coming in.

In Loguatu on the eastern Liberian border, refugees queued to register with the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) teams, who are working to clear a backlog of Ivoirians who arrived several days ago as well as receive those newly entering.