Laurent Gbagbo

Aged 65, incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo was trained as a history professor, becoming the director of the Institute of History, Art, and African Archeology at the University of Abidjan in 1980 after obtaining a doctorate at the Paris Diderot University, France. A 1982 national teachers’ strike in which he actively participated, inspired his creation of the Ivorian Popular Front (FPI) – an underground political party that would oppose a two-decade-old unique party system that former and late President Felix Houphouet Boigny had operated with little or no challenge.

The FPI struggle eventually led to a multiparty system with the country’s first general elections holding in 1990, which opposed Gbagbo to Houphouet, with the former winning in a landslide. However, Gbagbo could win a seat in parliament along with eight other members of the FPI. But his continuous opposition to Houphouet’s regime led to his serving several jail terms after being found guilty of inciting violence.


After a 1999 military coup that deposed Houphouet’s successor Henri Konan Bédié and brought in a former sports minister Gen. Guei Robert as head of state, presidential elections were held in October 2000, which saw the candidacies of two heavyweights Henri Konan Bédié and Alassane Dramane Ouattara rejected, leaving Gbagbo and Guei in the race among a score of weak candidates. Gbagbo eventually found his way to the presidential palace in October 2000 after his party successfully protested against a hold-up of the election results by Guei and his cohorts.

But a failed 2002 military coup that degenerated into a civil war perturbed Gbagbo’s first five-year term, which was prolonged by the international community after a multiple peace accords between his government and rebel forces, and yielding at last to a historic presidential elections where almost every candidate was allowed to run.

Strength

Gbagbo is widely seen as a nationalist and closest to Ivorians than the other two, being one coming from a poor family background. He is widely supported by evangelical Christians and some Catholics, who together constitute almost half of the country’s population. Another of his stronghold is the youths especially students. He also has his tribesmen of Bété (west) solidly behind him.

Weakness

Gbagbo runs weakest among Muslims and elderly people from the Baoulé tribe (central) who are among the largest ethnic group of the country. These were those who admired the late Houphouet whom Gbagbo combated all along.

Chances

All the public opinion polls prior to the election have given Gbagbo the highest scores. But the opposition argue the polls were not fairly conducted. However, with the total population made of close to 65% of youths, and with Gbagbo fairing well with this age group, he stands to be a favourite.

Alassane Dramane Ouattara

Alassane Dramane Ouattara, popularly known as ADO, was born in 1942 in the Ivorian town of Dimbokro. He trained as an economist, obtaining a doctorate degree from an American university and later worked for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO).


He appeared on the Ivorian political scene for the first time in 1990 when, according him, he was called upon by Houphouet to redress a drastic economic crisis Ivory Coast was undergoing. He served as Prime Minister from 1990 to 1993 before returning to the IMF after the death of Houphouet and the arrival as head of state of Bédié – who was the constitutional successor being the president of the national assemble.

ADO, who is now the president and flag bearer of the Rally of Republicans, RDR, has been deemed by his political rivals – including Gbagbo and Bédié - to be a non-Ivorian because his father, who according to him had Ivorian nationality, was of Upper Volta (now Burkina Faso) ancestry and was buried in a Burkina Faso town called Sindou. But he insists he is a full Ivorian because his mother was Ivorian and his father had the nationality. He has also accused his rivals of refusing him to run for previous presidential elections because he is a Muslim and because they’re scared of him beating them in the vote.

ADO has been the centre of almost all the recent crises in Ivory Coast. A refusal by the then President Bedié to issue ADO a nationality certificate eventually occasioned the 1999 military coup. The refusal of his candidacy prior the 2000 presidential elections led to another coup d’etat in 2002, which degenerated into the current crisis that partitioned the country into two with the south ruled by the regular government and the north by rebel forces.

Strength

ADO is a Muslim and northerner although his French wife and their children are Catholics and Protestants. Thus, he enjoys the strong backing of Muslims and those from the north. Most of naturalised Ivorians have aligned behind him because according to them, ADO is being unjustly treated by Ivorian politicians. Muslims and northerners constitute close to 52% of the total population, which gives ADO some strength towards the polls.

Weakness

ADO runs weakest among Christians, youths from the south and Ivorian nationalists. Some say he is the candidate of former colonial power France. But he has denied this, saying he would work with any foreign government to the interest of Ivory Coast if elected. And a number of ADO supporters and sympathisers are traders and mostly illiterate who, observers say, find it hard to properly cast their votes and thereby generating a number of nullified ballots.

Chances

ADO has been placed third in all the available polls, but he said during a TV debate on Thursday that his own polling placed him higher. If his militants could vote properly and if they turn out massively, the former prime minister might have his word in the elections. And having made a partial coalition with Bédié’s party, he may still have a chance in case of a run off.

Henri Konan Bédié

Born in Dadiékro - a small village in the Daoukro Department (central) of Ivory Coast - in 1934, Bédié studied economics in France, becoming at age 26, Ivory Coast’s first ambassador to the USA and Canada after independence in 1960.

Bédié served as Finance Minister and as the first Chairman of the IMF and World Bank's joint Development Committee from 1974 to 1976. He was Special Advisor to the World Bank Group's International Finance Corporation from 1978 to 1980. He later entered politics becoming a deputy at the National Assembly and later its president, which allowed him to succeed Houphouet after his death.


He was elected as president of Ivory Coast in 1995, but did not complete his first five-year term before the 1999 military coup ousted him and constrained him into exile. Like ADO, he was not allowed to run for the 2000 presidential election, because he provided a medical certificate delivered by a French clinic, which the electoral commission said was not conformed to their rules and regulations.

Now he is back to run for this years poll at age 75, the oldest of the 14 candidates, as the president of Ivory Coast democratic party, PDCI, the oldest and largest party in the country. Like ADO and a score of other candidates, Bédié reveres the late Houphouet as a model to emulate, because according to him, the late president was able to build a strong, peaceful and prosperous nation.

Strength

Bédié runs strongest in the central region, which is the bastion of his Baoulé tribe. His party is the largest, most organised and most implanted across the country. Even when observers suggest Bédié and his PDCI party might have lost a number of youth members in favour of Gbagbo, the party remains firm.

Weakness

Bédié runs weakest in the western region, which is a traditional fort of Gbagbo, but that could be compensated with his favourable ratings in the north and among some Muslims.

Chances

Bédié’s greatest chance will be a runoff against Gbagbo, which will see many ADO supporters voting for Bédié who is a political allied other than Gbagbo. ADO has also declared he was ready to be Bédié’s prime minister if the former president comes out on top.

Conclusion

The battle will basically turn around these three men, each of whom believes a win is more than certain. But the voters have the last word, which they will say on Oct. 31.