ANALYSIS: An oblique look into Africa’s future


  1. Deng Simon Garang in Juba, Sudan
    It is time to mock Libya's Muammar Gadhafi and his proposal for a United States of Africa (USA II or whatever acronyms that you may choose). Although formation of new nations is high on the agenda of many African nations, much logic should be employed in such decisions. In many African Union conventions today the idea of forming the USA II has been dominating.
    africa map
    The matter of concern here is not forming the USA II, but that strength of the founding stone (or the foundation) of the new nation must be appreciable. After all history has shown that many large nations emerged and collapsed.

    Before I embark on the future failures of this massive apparatus (USA II) in the making, it is worth mentioning that denying one’s right in favour of the other party is an absolute failure. All Africans should unite in the stand against this malicious scandal advancing towards the continent for the benefit of a minority over the marginalized majority. Late Dr. Garang described this political habit as “treating the masses as an expendable quantum only to be manipulated through political trickery and double-dealing.” This is not what we want to be in Africa, under fake and coerce unity. 

    The position of the African Union, let alone the so-called USA II, on the Sudanese political arena is quite hard to understand. It is clear that the position of many African nations concerning the arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court (ICC) chief prosecutor, Luis Moreno-Ocampo, for the incumbent president of the Sudan, Omar Al-Bashir, stands a challenging issue.

    The ICC was formed as a result of an international agreement of the Rome Statue, to which many African nations are signatories, with the aim of monitoring the performance and legal conduct of those in authority. However, it is unfortunate that the same signatories are signing out of the agreement because they are almost forgetting the real meaning of democracy, rule of law, and justice.

     The initial wrong step taken by the AU is its failure to recognize the ongoing genocide in Sudan’s western region of Darfur. In other words, the AU wants to robe Darfur of its justice to pay Khartoum’s Bashir a right he doesn’t deserve. It is time the AU reactivated its defunct skills of problem solving in a sense satisfactory to all.

    Peeping through the window of the closed future of the USA II, one sees a big pot breaking apart. There will be more problems than solutions in that gigantic African state. How will the present wars in many African nations be solved if the present small states as small units cannot solve their own problems? It is easier to solve a problem between two people than when many people are involved. Hell of misery awaits Africa following the formation of the USA II.

    Perhaps there is false inspiration to form a new, large United African nation. This source should be traced and hijacked before our leaders mislead themselves and the continent as whole. Our leaders should also know that the success of the United States of America (USA) in its various aspects does not need to falsely inspire the African continent.

    This is because USA has emerged through various evolutionary stages of political and economic development. This experience forms the backbone of American strength, and must never be wrongly translated to large land mass.
    African politics and economy are still too raw to effectively accommodate the divergent views of the African people. In the same trend, this hypothetical USA II is an aggregate of Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Thus, overall poverty will increase. It would rather to be poor at a lower standard, in many small African countries, than in a large USA II.

    Another pending issue that needs to be looked into before the USA II emerges is the terminology ’democracy.’ A simple definition of democracy known to many people is that “it is the government of the people, for the people, and by the people.”
    This is an American philosophy that we, as Africans, have to criticize, deliberate on, understand and finally accept to assimilate in our political system. Otherwise, it will remain a campaign manifesto that has nothing to offer. Democracy calls for continuous flow of power through the various groups of people.

    This is a myth and source of argument to mention in the presence of people like Hosni Mubarak of Egypt (now ousted in a popular uprising), Maumar Qaddhafi of Libya, Bashir of Sudan, and some other African presidents who have misfired the term democracy and as well who have become addicted to the ‘Presidential seat’ and would soon declare life presidency.

    Well, a President of USA II can emerge but will he (don’t even say her) be ready to quit if it is time for change? No, not at all! Instead, wars of succession and chronic rigging of elections will become the order of the day in the USA II. There will be continuous creation of survivors and emigrants from the USA II to other continents since Africa will become unruly and unfit for human survival. The continent will, in fact, be an expanded Somalia.

    To justify the above statement, there is too much political misconduct in Africa. For instance, in the recent Ugandan elections, even presidential candidates—forget of opposition party diehards— did not find their names on the register. Would President Museveni convince anyone if he said the challengers forgot to register to vote? Come to Libya’s Qaddhafi, who has declared civil war on his own citizens; he has declared readiness to fight to the last man and woman.

    What of Zimbabwe’s Mugabe, who has politically handicapped opposition leader Morgan Tsvangarai? Now Tsvangarai is known for offering the life of his dear wife on the altar of politics, yet he has not achieved his demand. Then, how many opposition leaders in USA II will be losing their wives in the same trend? Talk of Kenya’s Mwai Kibaki and the post-election violence, with subsequent loss of lives.

    If the violence was all over Africa, how many lives would have been lost? Yet in this small country (Kenya) opposition’s Riala Odinga was of no help and will not have any capacity to help in USA II whatever miracle may happen. There are many stories of the same form to give. I can summarize them into a single term, “political cannibalism”, where the politically stronger one preys on the weaker politicians and the citizenry.

    The politicians manipulate people’s choices to meet their selfish interests. I believe, it is better for cheating to continue in small African countries than in USA II. Qaddhafi’s USA II project is now ruined, the ongoing Libyan crisis is a bone in his throat that he should gag out with the strongest force ever.

    Regional imbalances in perspective of development are another problem needing solution. There are regions that are more developed than others in Africa and this imbalance will be intensified should the USA II emerge. The subsequent advantage will go to the already more developed states whereas the least developed will continue to become more marginalized. This is completely unacceptable in all terms and ought to be avoided.

    To avoid more problems from recurrence, African leaders should seek other mechanisms of forging unity among their states other than the USA II alternative. More analytical steps should be taken to avoid entry to a direction that is harmful. In a recap, the USSR was a large body nation but the composite nations turned against one another which eventually led to its disintegration. So, we should be watchful not to be dragged into the USA II, which may disintegrate within a decade for reasons already known. We are vigilant and will never be struck with wrong rod.

    Lastly, if leaders of Qaddhafi’s kind are allowed to decide on behalf of Africa, will the continent progress? There are many who have misled themselves and we should not allow them to mislead us as well. Before they crucified Jesus, the Jews said: “It is better for one man to die than for the nation to perish,” but I say, “Should Africa die or better let go individual politicians?” It is our collective decision to make the continent convenient.




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